Questions of a new model

http://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/news/2011/03/program-provides-predictive-surveillance-models-for-infectious-disease-outbreak-scenarios.aspx

1. How well do the modelers understand the underlying science or theory (be it physics, chemistry, economics, or whatever) of the system being studied? How well understood are the relevant properties of the materials involved? How accurate and complete are the data?
The modelers understand the underlying science or theory of the system being studied because they are scientists and doctors. The people that are studying the system are researches. It is necessary that the modelers understand the relevant properties of the materials involved because in order to have the model work they are required to be able to work the model and understand what is happening. The model is not very accurate because the researchers write, "No single component can provide sufficient information for accurate predictions. Just because we detect an El Niño event, does not mean that a disease outbreak will occur. Similarly, if a vector is present in a locality, it does not mean that the pathogen is present or that disease will be transmitted to humans. Human activities may permit, exacerbate, or prevent human exposure to the risk of disease transmission." This shows that the model is not as accurate as they want it to be but it is still accurate once the model is exposed.

2. Models necessarily involve assumptions and simplifications of reality. What are the assumptions and simplifications in the model?
Models necessarily involve assumptions and simplifications of reality in the model. Assumptions of the models are that the model would not work to full capacity or correctly because of the researchers say that the model is not accurate all of the time. A simplifications of this model is that disease is a disease and this model just tells when there is going to be a disease which will help people figure out how to cure it, even though doctors do the same thing. "The program will continue to advocate for focused, pre-emptive public health action to prevent or mitigate human morbidity and mortality, as well as the destabilizing effects of infectious disease outbreaks." This shows that the program will help diseases and when they are coming which is usually what a doctor does so this could be used as a simplification.

3. How closely do the results or predictions of the model correspond with results from physical experiments or real experience?
The results of the model correspond with results from physical experiments because the model will continue to advocate for focused, pre-emptice public health action to prevent or mitigate human morbidity and mortality. This model with stop the outbreaks of disease. The results are very close even though the model is not 100% accurate. "The researchers add that success of predictive surveillance will depend on the recognition that it is founded on a meta-system of different surveillance activities, linked by communications, coordination and collaboration between multiple, diverse disciplines, and producing advisories and alerts, which have progressively more certainty over the course of an outbreak’s emergence. " The results of the model correspond with physical experiments and even though physical experiments would probably be used in a better manner then the model the model can still detect once there is a disease.