p. 171-181 Gift of Fire

Questions:

4.5-1. How well do the modelers understand the underlying science or theory (physics, chemistry, economics, or whatever) of the system being studied? How well understood are the relevant properties of the materials involved? How accurate and complete are the data?
2. Models necessarily involve assumptions and simplifications of reality. What are the assumptions and simplifications in the model?
3. How closely do the results or predictions of the model correspond with results from physical experiments or real experience?

4.6-One simplification in the car crash models is a grid. This grig circles the earth, rises through the atmosphere, and goes into the ocean. The program solves equations for each grid point and element for specified time intervals. The simplification in the climate models is greenhouses. These make global warming predictions and they use computer models to distinguish climate.

4.25-An argument in his defense would be that he has been working for 25 years and that he knows what he is doing. He wouldn't make a decision that would put anything or anyone in harm and has good judgment on the weather because he has been working as a fire control burner for 25 years. An argument in support of his boss would be that they spent money on the computer models to tell the fire department exactly when it was a good time to burn the bush. The man could have easily mistaken the wind and used bad judgment while the computer model would not.

4.26-A) Yes, my decision about awarding money to the plaintiff would be affected by the company's policy about testing because if sometimes computers can mess up and if the testing is done with a computer and not physically the company would not know for sure but if it was done physically it would be alot easier to be able to know if anything could go wrong with the product.
B) Yes, my decision would be affected because if there were injuries whether the product was tested physically or through computer there were still injuries. This shows me that the product is not 100% safe if it is done with a computer or physically.

4.28-I believe that models that can predict the effect of an income tax change on government revenue would be very accurate with results because this is a very serious matter and governments might want to use this.
I believe that models that predict the position of the moon in relation to the earth, 30 years from now, would be accurate because if the testing is done everyday and was measured it would be easily done to do mathematically.
I believe that models that predict how much optical fiber will be needed in a major city from 30 years from now would not be accurate because population changes.
I believe that models that predict how much CO2 will be emitted worldwide by burning fossil fuel for energy 50 years from now will not be accurate because fossils are very old and can not be completely trusted.
I believe that models that can predict the speed of a new racing boat hull design under specific wind conditions would have correct accuracy because if tests are done with the boat in every type of windspeed it would be accurate.